|
View from my comfortable seat |
This event - the English language version of Shares Investment Conference 2012 was organised by Shares Investment magazine of Singapore (they have a sister publication in Malaysia too), held on
Saturday September 1st 2012, from 9am to 7pm at the Rock Auditorium, Suntec City Mall Level 3,
Singapore. I managed to get a free ticket for the morning session and paid for
the afternoon session at a reduced price. After attending the conference, I
thought I should write down some of the notes for the benefit of those who
could not make it to the event.
First
off, this is the programme schedule for the day for the benefits of those who
want to know what was discussed. I was only
able to attend the paid afternoon session from 2:30pm till 5pm. Note that the Power Lunch is for those VVIPs
whom have paid over the odds to have small group audience with the speakers of
the day. Frankly speaking, the wisdom of crowd beats the wisdom of two on any
day, I didn't feel I was missing out by not paying for the VVIP tickets.
Programme
|
8.00am
|
Registration / Morning Snack
|
9.00am
|
"The World Tomorrow and How Jim
Rogers Sees it" - Keynote speech by Jim Rogers
|
11.45am
|
Will The Bumpy Trend Continue For The
Commodities Market? - Avtar Sandu
|
12.30pm
|
Panel Discussion: "2013 – What Happens Without A Euro?" (Jim Rogers, Mike
Bellafiore, Avtar Sandu)
|
1.30pm
|
Lunchtime Talk by SGX / Power Lunch
with Jim Rogers & Mike Bellafiore
Registration for afternoon session
|
2.30pm
|
"Investing in Today's Crazy
Markets" - Keynote speech by Jim Rogers
|
3.45pm
|
"Beat the Market with ONE GOOD
TRADE" - Mike Bellafiore
|
5.00pm
|
Panel Discussion / Q&A with Jim Rogers, Mike Bellafiore, Avtar Sandu
|
|
Keynote Speech Session: Q&A with Jim Rogers
If you haven't already read about Jim Rogers, go and read up on him. I was a
little disappointed that this session with Jim Rogers was actually an
endless bout of Q&As with the audience. I must have missed a little bit of
opening speech in the morning since this afternoon session started immediately with
Q&As.
I have
managed to capture some of the more important comments for the benefit of my readers:
Q: How
should we invest in this current environment, you talked about US is likely to
experience high inflation in 2 years' time?
Jim: When
you have a currency debasement and inflation, you put your money in real
assets. Assets that produce income, such as rent-yielding properties. However,
note that even if you were to invest in properties and pay the mortgages off
completely, there is no guarantee that you will be immune from the
deteriorating economy - your own neighbours may not have paid off their
mortgages and thus if they default or sell their houses on the cheap, your
properties will devalue.
The best
is to have income-producing assets, borrowing on the cheap, lock in cheap rates
for as long as you could and generate above interest cost returns on the
properties or yield-producing assets.
Other remarks made by Jim:
- I have moved all my assets out of U.S. (bold statement!)
- I like to buy when people are throwing the stocks out of the window (panic selling), but I will do my homework to know whether this stock will have good fundamentals to keep growing.
- Politicians are liars, gold standard will not work and has never work for a sustainable period of time. Look at the Roman Empire, the politicians debase the gold and silver coins to the extent that each coin has 1% of silver, versus100% to start with. So currency debasement is always going to happen with the politicians in charge.
- Look to Myanmar (Burma) and North Korea for investments. The former used to be the largest
economy empire in Southeast Asia in the 1940s. The latter, when combined with South Korea, stands to become one of the largest economy in Asia, utilising technology from the South and cheap labour from the North.
- Invest in natural resources rich countries, like Canada and Australia.
- I like Chinese agriculture, can't give you names but you need to go study the sector yourself.
- I am out of US dollars but have holdings in Hong Kong dollars as I think it is a bet on US dollars with a call option on RMB (Chinese Yuan).
- I am shorting India given its terrible state, with debt / GDP of ~90%, historically when countries hit these levels, they will be busy paying off debt than to invest for the future.
- I have AUD (Australian dollars) and I am not selling.
More here from his interview with Shares Investment in early August and interview with India's Economic Times in early September.
One thing that really bugged me a lot is some of the really silly questions that were put forward to Jim, such as:
- A guy asked, "There seems to be a lot of World Wars going on all the time. Where should we invest when World War III come? " For a good few minutes, this guy is trying to argue with Jim that world wars are inevitable and he is shit-scared of the impending war which will happen just round the corner. Given this, he still want to "invest"?!
- A lady asked, "I heard that ETFs are going to blow up and it is not a recommended place to invest." On this, Jim and the audience tried to dissect what that statement meant, did the lady a) tried to paint a broad brush about ETFs being unsafe investment vehicle, or b) that the underlying indices/commodities of the ETF/ETCs are going to blow up, or c) she's talking about leveraged ETFs? Despite probing, Jim never quite get to the clarification that he was seeking. One thing is for sure, she just wasted 3 minutes of everyone's time.
- "Where would you buy properties - Miami or Singapore?" Well, given Jim is based here in Singapore and not in Miami, I think that's obvious...
"One Good Trade" - Talk by Mike Bellafiore
Next up,
a talk by Mike Bellafiore on prop trading - what you need to do before, during
and after every trade. It's all captured in his book (see below).
Honestly,
before the session, I have no idea who Mike is. Apparently he is the founder of
SMB Capital, a prop trading firm that he
set up with his long-term childhood friend. Here's a Youtube video of him.
Anyway,
he wrote a book called "One Good Trade: Inside the
Highly Competitive World of Proprietary Trading", available to buy here at
Amazon
He
started by highlighting the 7 fundamentals of trading, which I think was great
place to start. I won't repeat the entire talk verbatim here but will just let
you visit the various blog posts in SMB's training program or read Mike's book.
The 7 fundamentals? They are:
- Proper
preparation
- Hard work
- Patience
- Detail trading plan
- Discipline
- Communication
- Replaying your important
trades
FYI, his
book costs a rather uncool undiscounted price of S$78 at the event, which is over US$50. A search on Amazon gives me a price way below that…
Other Happenings
After Mike's session, I could not stomach another session of Q&As starting from 5pm. It will be a colossal waste of my time and I'd much rather go online and read up on other trading, finance and economics bloggers or gurus about their thoughts, in addition to Jim's and Mike's. So I left.
There
were the usual investing-related stands outside the auditorium, with the brokerage house Philips
Capital and several other providers touting their trading platforms, brokerage
accounts, features and whatnots. A bookseller was of course on hand to offer
the usual over-priced trading and investment books with 20% discount (trust me, with this 20% discount, you
will be getting the books here in Singapore priced at the same price as they do in the U.S., it goes without saying that it is rather expensive to buy books in Singapore. I suggest you buy from U.S. on a normal day, even cheaper if you buy
secondhand and/or bulk-send use a mail
forwarder like Borderlinx and vPost).
My Thoughts
The event
was held at the Suntec shopping mall, with the ever-so-popular computer and
gadgets sales COMEX 2012 IT products show
going on, which obviously have a lot more visitors (last count at 800 thousands, which I think is too high) than this 300-odd attendees
day-long seminar. For the price of the entry ticket, at S$168 (undiscounted) for a full day and
S$50 for my half-day at a special rate, it is rather disappointing.
Here's
why:
- Nothing really new
or revolutionary
- we have two speakers, one Jim Rogers that you almost inevitably will probably hear enough
of on CNBC, Bloomberg, mentions from other bloggers or financial news
reporters as well as his own blog. The other is Mike,
co-founder of a prop trading firm that train up traders and provide
training courses to anyone willing to pay for the training materials and online support, things that you can pick up from the company's marketing
material and blog posts online.
- Admittedly I have to say that
it's nice to hear from the man himself in person but I don't
think Jim Rogers thinks, let alone acts like a retail investor like us average Joes. He's worth tens of millions, if not hundreds, he has the ability to
diversify across multiple asset classes, geographies, investment quantum and investment horizons.
He can park some capital in Myanmar and North Korea via means that retail investors can't, primarily due to his connections, wealth and size of investment. I just don't want to be the ones buying when he's ready to sell.
- Having a pep talk by Mike was
refreshing if you do not already know about prop trading. I traded badly
before so it was great to have Mike talking about the fundamentals again,
reminding me that I need to
be discipline in my trading. I feel Mike should be replaced by a
local and more experienced fund manager, probably someone more in tune with the Asian
markets and running a long-only equity/bond investment fund. I know trading
is geography- and market-agnostic but this event is investment-focused, not day trading-focused.
Disclosure: All content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.